I had a disturbing dream about war, politics, and the result of the 2008 Presidential election the other day. Like many dreams, it was created from a combination of current events like the war in Iraq and the 2008 Presidential election mixed with a healthy dose of United States foreign policy insecurity.
It is interesting how the mind takes this combination of thoughts and creates a narrative and formulates a story. Let me share the dream with you, with the prospect that it will remain just a bad dream. Hopefully the next President of the United States will be very successful and the end of the war in Iraq will ensure a lasting peace in the Middle East.
In the dream, the front page of the New York Times, on this warm late August morning of 2009, is full of murky Middle East headlines. It is very apparent that the Middle East is on the verge of a full scale regional war. The prospect of war in the region has already doubled the price of a barrel of oil to near $200. For the first time, the word depression is openly being used in Washington and London to describe the potential impact of rapidly escalating oil prices to the economies of countries in the western world.
In Iraq, the situation has rapidly become untenable since the withdrawal of most the United States military in July. In fact, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki resigned yesterday amid growing chaos and instability in the country. Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi army of 10,000 militia now openly control the streets of Baghdad.
In fact, the front page of the New York Times shows the picture of al-Sadr as he declares his allegiance to the country of Iran. Meanwhile, an Iraqi civil war between Shia Muslims and Sunni Muslims has been ongoing for the last two months. Hardly a day now goes by that a new atrocity is not reported by the worldwide press. It is also being reported that Iranian troops are consolidating near the Iraq border. An invasion of Iraq by Iran may now be only days away.
In Saudi Arabia, the House of Saud is in trouble. Shia Muslims are in open revolt while pledging loyalty to the new dominant power in the Middle East and their Shia brethren in Tehran. Al- Qaeda"s influence in the country is growing as evidenced by the increasing unrest. The terrorist group is actively looking for an end to the reign of the ruling Saudi royal family.
Iran has been even more belligerent than usual in the last several days. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad states that he will declare war on Israel if they bomb any Iranian nuclear facility. He repeated his previous vow to wipe the Zionist entity Israel off of the map and again insisted that the cancerous growth called Israel would soon disappear.
Numerous intelligence sources have indicated that, irrespective of three United Nations resolutions containing sanctions, Iran may now be only less than two years away from having a nuclear bomb. Despite these disturbing intelligence reports, the United Nations will not support additional sanctions to stop Iran from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Iran continues to receive support from Russia and China in the United Nations Security Council. The New York Times reports that an effort to introduce further sanctions initiated by the United Kingdom and the United States has just failed..
Iran has also been bolstered by its recent public alliance with Syria and its President Bashar al- Assad. Even though Syria has been aiding Iran for years by supporting the terrorist organization, Hezbollah, the declared public alliance between the two countries is alarming indeed. In a war to come, Syria would like to take the Golan Heights from Israel as a fresh water source and strategic security point for Damascus.
In Israel, rumors abound that the new Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is about to bomb strategic Iranian nuclear facilities both above and below ground. Israel has been in a constant state of attack for months from the Iranian sponsored terror groups of Hamas and Hezbollah. Last week for the first time a Hezbollah rocket reached into Tel Aviv. Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has referred to Israel again as a "temporary country."
I finished reading the newspaper stories in time to watch the televised press conference of United States President Barack Obama concerning the escalating crisis in the Middle East. The young President has been severely criticized in recent days for his inexperience in the affairs of United States foreign policy. Many think honoring his Presidential election campaign pledge of immediate military withdrawal from Iraq has greatly contributed to this escalating crisis.
However, there were additional factors that led to the United States military withdrawal. American troops in Iraq were needed to stabilize the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan where NATO forces have failed to secure peace. The truth is the nations of western Europe never made the necessary troop commitment in the country.
In addition, American"s had grown weary of spending all of the country"s treasure in support of the administration of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. His unstable, dysfunctional government was never very effective in creating a governing consensus among the various ethnic factions in Iraq.
In the press conference, President Obama read a statement about the need for dialogue with all the different leaders in the region and about the power of hope. It is clear that this Middle East crisis is about to get worse. In retrospect, the invasion of Iraq by George Bush (43) may turn out to be a military blunder of historic proportions.
The stark reality is that after our recent military withdrawal from the region that it is too late for dialogue to avoid war in 2009. As for hope, it sounded great in last November"s 2008 Presidential election sound bites. However, like Republican John McCain"s dubious, costly, open-ended plan which may have required the military to be in Iraq for the next fifty to one hundred years, "hope" was never a realistic strategy for peace in Iraq or the Middle East.