There are primaries and then there are caucuses. Hillary hates the caucus! The Ohio primary is a piece of cake compared to Texas. In Texas you get a little of both! Yep. There will be the primary election (early voting has been going on for two weeks now). There are 126 delegates up for grabs in the primary. Hillary can win 51% of the vote and beat Obama by 5 delegates. Then what?
Fifteen minutes after the polls close the caucus process begins and there are 67 more delegates at stake here and God only knows how all of the plays out, but the winner of the primary popular vote could end up with less delegates than who came in second.
That"s the Texas two step! And it"s not lottery game.
Until two decades ago, the primary was advisory only, and all delegates were picked in caucuses. But in 1988, a group of reformers wanted to put a primary into the process to enhance participation. And yet they also wanted to keep aspects of the caucus process. The Hillary Clinton campaign is going to have fun here in Texas.
"In the final analysis this is all about a delegate count," says Henry Cisneros, a Cabinet officer under President Clinton, and a supporter of the former first lady. "There"s a scenario where you could win an election and get swamped in the caucuses." But it gets ven more confusing for you see the primary is actually 31 separate primaries, one in each of the state"s state Senate districts, with anywhere from two to eight delegates divided between winner and loser.
Anyone have a calculator and a couple of aspirns? Skip the aspirins and just give me a shot of single malt- aged 15 years please. Ready for more now? :-)
The 126 primary delegates are distributed across the state based in part on the number of votes cast in the 2004 presidential and 2006 gubernatorial elections, rather than strictly on population. State senate districts that gave Sen. John Kerry or the 2006 gubernatorial candidate, Chris Bell, a majority or even a sizable minority in their votes in 2004 and 2006 are favored with more delegates under the formula. That generally means areas that are home to blacks and liberals, in areas around Houston, Dallas and Austin, for example — groups that have strongly favored Obama.
Election day polls in Texas from four years ago show blacks gave Kerry 83 percent of their votes in 2004, to 17 percent for Bush. Two years later, Bell claimed 63 percent black support in losing a four-way race to Republican Gov. Rick Perry. By contrast, Kerry split the Hispanic votes with Bush, 50-49. Bell got less than that, 41 percent.
As a result, some state Senate districts with heavy Hispanic populations, including areas around Brownsville and Corpus Christi, have relatively few delegates at stake in this year"s presidential primary. That"s not good news for Clinton, who has won strong support from Hispanic voters in other states.
She faces other Texas obstacles in eroding Obama"s national delegate advantage. Another round for the house please!
Within each state Senate district, delegates are awarded in rough proportion to the popular vote. That presents a daunting challenge to any candidate hoping to sweep most or all the delegates and run up a big lead. Of the 31 state Senate districts, 15 have four delegates apiece. Under party rules, unless the winner gains nearly 63 percent of the vote, Clinton and Obama will each walk away with two delegates, and neither will gain ground.
And you thought that keeping track of the super delegates was difficult?
Another nine districts, scattered around the state, have three delegates apiece. The odds overwhelmingly favor a 2-to-1 split, since the winner would have to gain more than 83 percent of the vote to score a 3-0 sweep. Does anyone remember the Austin debate? Does it matter?
One district, in West Texas, has two delegates, and the winner there would need 75 percent of the vote to win both. Two districts have five delegates apiece. The likeliest outcome is a 3-2 delegate split, since the winner will need 70 percent of the vote to get a 4-1 victory. Two more districts each have six delegates. But the winner needs 75 percent of the vote for the winner to gain more than a 4-2 split.
A district in Houston offers seven delegates, and the odds favor a 4-3 split.
The state Senate district with the most delegates, eight, is centered on Austin. The winner there needs slightly over 56 percent to gain even five of the eight, and nearly 69 percent of the vote to gain a 6-2 split.
Give? :-(
The Texas two step will have commentators scratching their heads. Ohio should be a breeze compared to Texas. Oh yes, and then there"s Vermont and Rhode Island. I can"t wait!